10/07/2012

Pegasus Order

The turkish carrier Pegasus is about to announce their choice for the next 100 narrowbodies, ATWonline reports. The airline has already decided on which aircraft to take, ATW says and wants to announce it shortly. Obviously A320neo and the B737MAX are in the competition. As Pegasus has a fleet of 40 B737-800NG and two B737-400 right now I would rule out the CS300 as it would be a smaller aircraft than the ones currently in use.
One sentence in the article might give us a hint who will be the winner:
"The carrier expects to start receiving the new aircraft in around three years."

1. In 2015 only the A320neo is available, the B737MAX is coming to the market two years later. So one might think that the A320neo might be the aircraft of choice.
2. But as I laid out earlier, Boeing has about 1,000 B737NG positions to sell until the B737MAX will be the only B737 version produce by Boeing, which could happen in late 2019, about two years after EIS of the B737MAX.

So my guess is that Boeing made an irresistible offer to Pegasus. As Boeing is the provider of the current fleet, they have to loose more than Airbus anyway here.
But let's don't underestimate John Leahy - maybe he surprises us (well, at least me) one more time. But my bet is on Boeing here!