Scott Hamilton has a piece about how GE and CFM are able to win so many engine competitions and for that went deep into the Republic deal for 40 A319neo and 40 A320neo, to be equipped with the LEAP-1A.
After reading the story I went on and looked at a few public databases, where you can check out which airlines owns which aircraft, with which engines they are equipped and who is (eventually) the lessor of the aircraft.
I was interested in the airlines which already ordered the A320neo, but did not commit to an engine so far. Here are my findings and what they tell me:
1. GoAir: they have a firm order for 72 A320neo
Current fleet: 10 A320 powered by CFM56. They firmed up 10 options for the A320 (classic), no information which engine they choose for these, but I would guess CFM56.
GECAS leases 4 of these aircraft to GoAir.
So both CFM and GECAS have leverage for a deal to sell the LEAP-1A to GoAir. CFM could reduce spare parts pricing for the existing CFM56 and GECAS could lower lease rates.
Now GoAir is reportedly also interested in the CSeries and could announce a deal in July or August.
That gives P&W a leverage to struck a combined deal here, as the PW1524G is the sole engine for the CSeries.
Conclusion: Tie! Everything is possible!
2. Jetblue: Jetblue has a MoU for 40 A320neo
Current fleet: 118 A320 with V2500, 49 E190 with CF34-10E
GECAS leases 13 A320 as well as 35 E190 to Jetblue
At first glance, P&W should have better cards, if one just looks at the A320 engines, but GECAS tries to get a hold here with more leases.
MTU does the MRO for the engines on a power-by-the-hour basis, so they could be involved in a deal for placing the PW1133G on the A320neo's for Jetblue.
Conclusion: It's P&W's to loose - and that's the chance of CFM!
3. Avianca TACA: they have a MoU for 33 A320neo
Current fleet: 42 A320 powered by CFM (mostly Avianca), 30 A320 powered by V2500 (+20 on order)
GECAS leases 14 aircraft to Avianca TACA.
GE has a dedicated MRO shop for the CFM56-5 in Brasil.
Conclusion: CFM's to loose. They have clearly more to throw into that deal.
4. LAN/TAM: 20 firm oders (LAN) + MoU for 22 (TAM)
The airlines are in a merger process.
Current fleet: Large A320 family fleet, powered both by the V2500 and the CFM56 - LAN selected the CFM56 last year for a further 50 A320.
GECAS leases 23 aircraft, mostly to TAM.
MTU is providing MRO for the V2500 at TAM.
Conclusion: Close call! CFM and GECAS have slightly more leverage...
5. Garuda Indonesia/Citilink: MoU for 10 A320neo + 25 Options
Current fleet: 78 B737 (Classics and NG) with CFM56
GECAS leases 40 B737 to Garuda.
Conclusion: CFM can hardly loose this one!
6. Transasia: 6 A321neo on firm order
Current fleet: 2 A320 and 5 A321 powered by V2500, 7 ATR powered by PW127
Conclusion: P&W can hardly loose here!
And now look at some prospective customers:
1. Delta Air Lines
- GE engines are on 105 aircraft
- CFM engines are on 209 aircraft
- GECAS leases14 aircraft to Delta
- PW engines are on 355 aircraft
- IAE engines are on 27 aircraft with 13 more to come (MD-90)
Most PW engines will go away with the replacement (the last DC-9's and the MD-80's), so the P&W leverage is not that big as it looks.
Conclusion: a deciding factor could be the engine commonality with a possible CSeries order!
2. American Airlines
- GE engines are on 73 aircraft and will be on the 6 ordered B777-300ER
- CFM engines are on 154 aircraft and 54 more ordered B737-800
- GECAS leases 61 aircraft to AA
- PW engines are on the 229 MD-80's, which will then disappear
Conclusion: never heard so far that AA is interested in the CSeries, so this is CFM's to loose.
3. Air France/KLM
- GE engines are on 146 aircraft
- CFM engine are on 210 aircraft
- GECAS leases just one aircraft to AF/KLM (is that right?)
Conclusion: hopeless for P&W, M. Sarkozy will never let AirFrance order an engine without french content if there is one available.